Ride the controversy: Rachel Reeves’s spring statement could quietly set the stage for a bolder autumn budget, and that tension is exactly what makes this update worth watching.
Rachel Reeves has signaled that her spring statement will be a restrained affair, aiming to keep the spotlight on the autumn budget as the year’s main fiscal event. The chancellor is slated to deliver the update in the House of Commons on the afternoon of 3 March. An exact time hasn’t been confirmed, but the statement is expected to run roughly 20 minutes, far shorter than a full budget address.
Last November brought a flurry of speculation and substantial tax rises, lifting tax as a share of GDP to a record high. Reeves and the Treasury have stressed that the spring statement—rebranded from the spring budget—will be low-key with no major announcements, and she may even dispense with her famed red box.
Even so, this seemingly modest event still wields real influence. It can shape the government’s appetite for future tax changes and spending decisions, depending on the latest signals from the economy.
Will the OBR be part of the spring statement?
Reeves will lay out the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) latest forecasts, which will then be published after her speech. So, even in its “low-key” form, the spring statement remains a critical moment to gauge the impact of the previous budget and current policies.
The OBR produces two semiannual forecasts, showing how the economy is likely to perform and whether the government is on track to meet its fiscal rules.
The chancellor’s two fiscal rules are:
- Not to borrow to fund day-to-day public spending by the end of this Parliament
- To ensure the government’s debt burden as a share of national income is falling by the end of this Parliament
The OBR gained unusual attention at the last budget after an accidental leak revealed its assessment ahead of Reeves’s announcement. In response, a security review led the Treasury to publish the forecast on gov.uk rather than on the OBR’s own site.
This will mark the first time in the OBR’s 16-year history that it does not publish a formal assessment of the government’s progress toward its fiscal rules. Economists, however, will still infer the chancellor’s “headroom” from the published forecast, which can influence financial markets and policy expectations.
Read more:
- Record-breaking budget surplus as tax income rises
- Budget 2025 – key points at a glance
What does falling inflation mean for you?
Will Reeves raise taxes?
The chancellor has stated there will be no major announcements, but minor tweaks to tax policy could occur. Such moves carry political risk, with the potential to be portrayed as stealth taxes and to invite criticism from opposition parties and, at times, from members of her own party.
What is the current state of the UK economy?
Inflation has fallen sharply but remains above the Bank of England’s 2% target, currently hovering around 3%. The economy remains fragile: GDP grew just 0.1% in the final quarter of 2025, though it expanded 1.3% for the full year. Unemployment has risen to 5.2% in the three months to December 2025, with youth unemployment (ages 16–24) at 16.1%—the highest since 2014.
Wages, however, are still rising. In the last quarter of 2025, average weekly earnings grew by 4.2% excluding bonuses.
Tax receipts rose as a result of previous tax increases, contributing to a January budget surplus of £30.4 billion—£15.9 billion higher than the previous year and the highest monthly total on record (unadjusted for inflation) since records began in 1993.
